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2007-6-6 9:02:36
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每天学习一个金融词汇（之一） |
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市盈率
P/E Ratio
Shiyinglv
英文亦称为earnings multiple。市盈率是最常用来评估股价水平是否合理的指标之一，由股价除以年度每股盈余(EPS)得出(以公司市值除以年度股东应占溢利亦可得出相同结果)。计算时，股价通常取最新收盘价，而EPS方面，若按已公布的上年度EPS计算，称为历史市盈率(historical P/E);若是按市场对今年及明年EPS的预估值计算，则称为未来或预估市盈率(prospective/forward/forecast P/E)。计算预估市盈率所用的EPS预估值，一般采用市场平均预估(consensus estimates)，即追踪公司业绩的机构收集多位分析师的预测所得到的预估平均值或中值。
市盈率对个股、类股及大盘都是很重要参考指标。任何股票若市盈率大大超出同类股票或是大盘，都需要有充分的理由支持，而这往往离不开该公司未来盈利料将快速增长这一重点。一家公司享有非常高的市盈率，说明投资人普遍相信该公司未来每股盈余将快速成长，以至数年后市盈率可降至合理水平。一旦盈利增长不如理想，支撑高市盈率的力量无以为继，股价往往会大幅回落。
何谓合理的市盈率没有一定的准则，但以个股来说，同业的市盈率有参考比照的价值;以类股或大盘来说，历史平均市盈率有参照的价值。
市盈率是很具参考价值的股市指标，容易理解且数据容易获得，但也有不少缺点。比如，作为分母的每股盈余，是按当下通行的会计准则算出，但公司往往可视乎需要斟酌调整，因此理论上两家现金流量一样的公司，所公布的每股盈余可能有显著差异。另一方面，投资者亦往往不认为严格按照会计准则计算得出的盈利数字忠实反映公司在持续经营基础上的获利能力。因此，分析师往往自行对公司正式公式的净利加以调整，比如以未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销之利润(EBITDA)取代净利来计算每股盈余。
另外，作为市盈率的分子，公司的市值亦无法反映公司的负债(杠杆)程度。比如两家市值同为10亿美元、净利同为1亿美元的公司，市盈率均为10。但如果A公司有10亿美元的债务，而B公司没有债务，那么，市盈率就不能反映此一差异。因此，有分析师以“企业价值(EV)”--市值加上债务减去现金--取代市值来计算市盈率。理论上，企业价值/EBITDA比率可免除纯粹市盈率的一些缺点。
上文中，股东应占溢利(attributable profit)与净利(net profit/earnings)两词交替使用，准确点应全部讲股东应占溢利。净利扣掉少数股东(minority interest)应占利润及优先股股东(preference shareholders)的股息，即得出(普通股)股东应占溢利。少数股东是指在集团子公司中持有少数股权的投资者。
Synonym: PER
The P/E Ratio (PER) is the latest closing share price divided by the net profit per share (Eps). Note: P/E ratios are only really valuable when comparing the latest price with expected or forecast earnings, rather than last year's earnings, because an investor who bought the stock today could not buy last year's earnings. If a company has forecast EPS of 10 and a share price of 150, its P/E is 15. In other words, it would take fifteen years for the stock investment to pay for itself. The P/E Ratio is also known as the P/E multiple. The reverse of the P/E ratio is the 'earnings yield', or 1/PER. A company with a P/E of 15 has an earnings yield of 6.66 percent (1 divided by 15). Price-earnings is one of the most common measures of investment value and is widely used by the media and markets as an indicator of whether a stock is expensive or cheap. The higher the PER, the higher the market values the company's expected earnings flow. A high PER may be a sign that the market expects the company's earnings to grow rapidly, or it may be a sign that earnings have slumped and the share price does not yet fully reflect that fall. A relatively low P/E suggests investors' outlook for the company is gloomy. As P/E ratios are a measure of relative value, not absolute, they cannot be considered in isolation: one company should be compared against its rivals, or industry or national averages. Low-growth companies such as steel makers, shipyards and construction companies often trade at relatively low P/Es (10 or less) while high-tech firms often command P/E multiples of 40 or more.
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